“No Friends but the Mountains”: Kurdish Survival Equations and Geopolitical Realignment After the US Withdrawal

Amid the completion of the total US military withdrawal and the intensifying conflict between the US and Iran, approximately 40 million Kurdish people living in the borderlands of Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria once again find themselves facing the crisis of being “geopolitical loners,” left behind in the diplomatic calculations of major powers.

With the abrupt departure of the United States—an ally with whom the Kurds fought shoulder-to-shoulder on the frontlines of the war against ISIS—the era in which the Kurds could rely on superpowers as an “security shield” has effectively come to an end. Confronted with the cold reality of power politics driven by foreign self-interest, this article objectively diagnoses the harsh Middle Eastern political environment facing the Kurdish people and comprehensively analyzes the realist path forward for them to maintain survival and autonomy.

1. The Dangerous Geopolitical Environment Facing the Kurdish People

Following the US troop withdrawal and the subsequent realignment of regional powers, the encirclement strategy by the “Four Hyenas” (Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran) surrounding Kurdish territories has become far more overt and aggressive.

📍 [The 4-Way Pressure Framework Surrounding the Kurdish People]

• ⬆️ North | Turkey
  • Neutralize Kurdish militias (YPG/PKK) near the border and halt their expansion.
  • Secure deep “safe zones” (buffer zones) along the border to solidify territorial control.
• ⬅️ West | Syrian Central Government
  • Leverage the US absence to press for integration agreements on central government terms.
  • Reclaim sovereign, administrative, and military control over autonomous Kurdish regions (Rojava).
• ➡️ East | Iran & Pro-Iranian Militias
  • Preemptively dismantle and crush potential solidarity among Kurdish anti-government groups in Iran.
  • Exploit the security vacuum left by the US withdrawal to expand Shiite regional influence.
• ⬇️ South | Iraqi Central Government
  • Strip the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) of independent oil sales rights and fiscal authority.
  • Centralize defense and financial power under the Baghdad central government.

🚨 Detailed Analysis of Regional Crises

① Northeastern Syria (Rojava): Loss of Independent Autonomy and Forced Integration

Without US military support, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reached their physical limits in single-handedly deterring large-scale Turkish military incursions and remnants of ISIS terrorist networks. Consequently, to survive, the SDF was forced to negotiate with the Syrian central government (the Assad regime and transition authorities), leading to military integration and the transfer of administrative control. This marked a significant setback from the vision of establishing an independent state or robust autonomous region—a pragmatic compromise driven purely by survival.

② Northern Iraq (KRG): Economic and Political Containment

Armed with favorable supreme court rulings and control over the central bank, the Baghdad central government has cut off independent oil export routes used by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) while dictating budget allocations. Deprived of the US security umbrella, the KRG is now directly exposed to military and political pressure from powerful pro-Iranian Shiite militias (PMF) within Iraq.

③ Turkey & Iran: Normalization of Cross-Border Security Threats

• Turkey: Classifying the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Syrian YPG as top national security threats, Turkey has normalized regular cross-border drone strikes and ground operations deep inside northern Syria and Iraq.
• Iran: Fearing that domestic ethnic minority unrest could spread among its own Kurdish population, Iran continues to launch missile and drone strikes against anti-Tehran Kurdish bases in northern Iraq.

2. Practical Survival Strategies for the Kurdish People

As relying on superpowers for “proxy war cooperation” has ended in diplomatic abandonment, the Kurdish people must swiftly pivot from a idealist independence movement to a realist political strategy.

① Transition from “Secessionist Independence” to “Pragmatic Federalism and Autonomy”

• Confronting Cold Realities: The Kurds must accept the geographic and geopolitical reality that neither the four neighboring countries nor the broader international community—including the US, Russia, and the UN—will allow the establishment of an independent state of “Kurdistan.”
• Pragmatic Compromise: In negotiations with Syrian and Iraqi central governments, adhering to a pragmatic federal model that secures constitutionally guaranteed linguistic/cultural autonomy and local security control is far more viable than pursuing nominal total independence.

② Overcoming Internal Divisions and Establishing a Unified Front

Historically, the greatest weakness of the Kurdish people has been intense internal factionalism. Power struggles between major factions within the Iraqi KRG (KDP vs. PUK) and ideological rifts between Syria’s SDF and Iraq’s KRG have provided neighboring powers with the perfect pretext to divide and rule. Without a unified diplomatic front and coalition structure, Kurdish forces will continue to be defeated piecemeal.

③ Diversifying Multilateral Diplomacy to Escape “Geopolitical Isolation”

• Ending Single-Dependence on the US: Kurdish security must no longer hinge entirely on shifting political tides or administration changes in Washington.
• Expanding Alliances in the International Arena: The Kurds must emphasize their value to the European Union (EU), the Arab League, and international human rights organizations as a “protector of ethnic minority rights” and a “regional stabilizer against terrorism.” Transforming diplomatic channels to secure humanitarian and economic backing from multiple sources is essential.

3. Conclusion: From “Betrayed Allies” to “Internal Resilience”

The history of the Kurdish people has long been summarized by the bitter proverb: “The Kurds have no friends but the mountains.” While the withdrawal of US troops places humanity’s longest and most painful “national wandering” under another severe trial, it need not be viewed solely as a historic tragedy.

Instead of grand slogans calling for immediate nationhood, shifting toward quietly building internal resilience—securing high-level autonomy within existing central state frameworks, pursuing economic pragmatism, and fostering internal unity—will allow the Kurdish community and culture to withstand threats from neighboring powers.

In particular, the historical examples of Singapore and South Korea—nations that successfully navigated survival while surrounded by major foreign powers—offer valuable benchmarks for the Kurdish people:

• Learning from Singapore on how to generate indispensable economic and geopolitical value among competing global powers;
• Learning from South Korea on how to build institutional strength and internal cohesion despite a history of constant foreign invasions.

By studying and adapting these models, the Kurdish people can transform from “betrayed proxy war fighters” into “wise survivors of the Middle East.”

An analyst discusses the geopolitical consequences and risks facing the Kurdish forces following the complete withdrawal of US troops.

Wikipedia

This video provides vital context on how the US withdrawal from the region reshaped the power dynamics and security environment for the Kurdish people.