Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi’s recent warning that Iran is prepared to respond with the ‘Father of All Bombs’ should the US make the miscalculation of resuming military attacks against Iran stands at the intersection of internal/external political propaganda (advertising effect) and technical realities. Here is a detailed analysis of the solutions to Iran’s hardline stance, incorporating geographical, economic, and international political perspectives.

1. Announcement of the ‘Father of All Bombs’: Domestic Propaganda or Actual Reverse-Engineering?

To start with the conclusion, while the rhetoric is heavily driven by motives of domestic political consolidation and threat deterrence, the aspect of acquiring applied technologies through weapon analysis is grounded in partial facts.

• Possibilities and Limitations of Reverse-Engineering: The 14-ton (30,000 lb) super-heavy bomb used by the US military to destroy underground bunkers is the GBU-57 MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator). If unexploded ordnance was recovered, dismantled, and analyzed, it would be possible to understand the bomb’s metal smelting techniques, fuze systems, and warhead penetration structures. However, dropping such a bomb strictly requires specialized platforms like the US B-2 stealth bomber. Since Iran does not possess these heavy strategic bombers, it is highly likely that rather than deploying an air-dropped bomb identical to that of the US, Iran transformed and applied the technology into heavy warheads for its ballistic missiles.
• Political Psychological Warfare (Advertising Effect): When the US side mentioned potential hypothetical strikes using the ‘Mother of All Bombs’ (MOAB, GBU-43) or the MOP, Iran countered by framing its response around the phrase ‘Father of All Bombs’—a near wordplay aimed at staging a confrontation between equals. Domestically, it strongly serves as an internal message to rally public sentiment behind the Supreme Leader amidst economic distress and external pressure by leveraging foreign threats.

2. The US Midterm Elections and the Endpoint of a US-Iran War

In the context of the US midterm elections, the Middle East conflict poses a massive political burden for both major parties.

• US Military Red Lines (No Ground Troops): The US has no intention of escalating into a full-scale war involving ground troop deployment. Voters in US midterm elections react with extreme sensitivity to rising oil prices, inflation, and US military casualties. Consequently, the military endpoint for the US will likely be limited to precision pinpoint strikes on key Iranian nuclear and missile facilities alongside maritime blockades, rather than escalating into a large-scale invasion aimed at regime change.
• The Actual Endpoint of the War: Both the US and Iran will avoid a mutually destructive full-scale war. Instead, they are highly likely to reach a stalemate at a point where they maintain a ‘Controlled Escalation’ to preserve their respective political standing.

3. Iran’s Delaying Tactics and the Possibility of ‘Covert Nuclear Completion’

This is a fully valid concern and, in fact, represents one of the core strategies currently employed by Iran.

• Delaying Tactics to Avoid Primary and Secondary Interventions: Iran is creating a state of giving and taking blows while avoiding direct, large-scale military clashes with the US, thereby buying time to increase its nuclear stockpiles and reduce its breakout time.
• Shift to ‘Asymmetric Deterrence’: The Iranian leadership clearly recognizes that nuclear capability is the sole means to overcome the conventional force gap against superpowers. While publicly mentioning peace and negotiations, Iran is internally expanding its stockpile of uranium enriched to over 60%, taking steps to solidify its status as a de facto ‘Threshold Nuclear State.’

4. Tensions Among Neighboring Arab Nations and Middle East Energy Hegemony: The Hidden Clues to a Solution

Analyzing the complex web of this fierce confrontation through three distinct lenses yields the following:

🌐 The 3 Pillars of the Middle East Crisis and Their Solutions

[Geographical Threat] - Strait of Hormuz Blockade
[Economic Standing] - Oil Price Spikes & Supply
[Int'l Political Landscape] - Proxy War among Major Powers (US-CN-RU)
                           Chain Crises
          └───────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────────┘
                                ▼
                      【 🔑 3 Hidden Clues to a Solution 】

1. Utilizing Direct Regional Diplomatic Channels

• Saudi-Iran Bilateral Dialogue (Leveraging China’s Mediation Framework): Ease regional tensions through direct dialogue between key Middle Eastern nations instead of relying on external superpower leadership.

2. Pragmatic Diplomacy by Arab Oil-Producing Nations

• Securing ‘Pragmatic Neutrality’ and Self-Guarantees: Gulf Arab oil producers (GCC) can safeguard their own security and eliminate Iran’s pretext for provocation by adopting a neutral stance rather than unilaterally siding with the US and Israel.

3. A Realistic Transactional Deal

• Limited Nuclear Freeze ↔ Economic Sanctions Relief: Seek a realistic, step-by-step compromise by freezing Iran’s nuclear activities at a certain level in exchange for sanction relief, rather than pursuing an unrealistic complete nuclear dismantlement.

① Geographical Aspect

• The Strait of Hormuz Dilemma: If Iran threatens or blocks the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global maritime oil supplies pass—the global economy will suffer an immediate blow. Because of this strategic choke point, even the US finds it difficult to exert pressure to the extent of completely devastating Iran.

② Economic Aspect

• Oil Nations’ Desire to Transition Away from Oil (Vision 2030): Gulf Arab nations (GCC) like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are actively working to transform their economic structures toward advanced industries. They are extremely wary of having their domestic oil and gas infrastructure hit by Iranian missile or drone strikes in a military clash between the US and Iran. Thus, while appearing to cooperate with the US and Israel on the surface, Arab nations are discreetly building back-channel bridges with Iran in pursuit of stability.

③ International Political Aspect

• The US-China-Russia Dynamics: Iran is weakening the impact of unilateral US sanctions by aligning closely with Russia (for arms supply and counter-US coordination) and China (for oil exports and economic backing). As the Middle East conflict drags on, US military assets are diverted away from Europe (against Russia) and Asia (against China), making Iran a valuable card in the broader superpower competition among the US, China, and Russia.

💡 Conclusion: The Hidden Clues to a Solution The hidden keys to resolving the Middle East crisis lie in the “pragmatic neutrality of Arab oil-producing nations” and a “realistic transactional deal between the US and Iran.”

1. Direct Communication Channels Between Arab Nations and Iran (Saudi Arabia’s Mediating Role): Instead of a binary framework of the US/Israel vs. Iran, a realistic solution is a ‘regional balance of power’ where the Arab world, led by Saudi Arabia, deters aggressive Iranian actions through improved bilateral relations.
2. Exchanging Pretext for Practical Gain: Iran will not accept Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Dismantlement (CVID). Therefore, the only diplomatic exit to prevent war is for the US to pivot toward a Step-by-Step Deal, offering partial sanctions relief in exchange for a verified freeze on Iran’s nuclear enrichment.