Global Temperature Anomalies and the Great Transformation of the Automotive Industry:

Global climate change and the resulting shifts in the automotive industry are among the most pressing challenges facing humanity today. Based on the current situation as of 2026, we have analyzed and summarized scientific data and international policy trends.

1. The Near Future Brought About by Abnormal Temperatures (2026–2030)

Climate scientists predict that the point at which global temperatures rise by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—often referred to as humanity’s “red line”—will occur around 2030, a full decade earlier than originally anticipated (2040).

• Record-Breaking Heatwaves Becoming the Norm: Heatwaves of a magnitude once described as a “once-in-a-century heatwave” will occur almost every year. There is an 80% or higher probability that the hottest year in history will be recorded sometime between 2026 and 2027.
• Food and Water Security Crisis: As high temperatures and drought cause harvests to plummet in major global breadbaskets, “food inflation” is expected to become the norm.
• Weather Extremes Becoming the Norm: Increased atmospheric water vapor is intensifying the intensity of torrential downpours, leading to urban flooding and infrastructure damage.
• Reaching a Tipping Point: Rapid melting of Arctic glaciers is causing sea levels to rise and altering ocean currents, increasing the risk of drastic climate shifts in specific regions, such as Europe.

⚠️ Adding Insult to Injury: Early Signs of El Niño Detected—Will a Climate Catastrophe Become Reality in 2026-2027?

2. International Roadmap for Vehicle Transition

To address the climate crisis, the global community is implementing roadmaps to phase out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and transition to eco-friendly vehicles. However, in light of recent practical infrastructure challenges and economic conditions, the pace of this transition is being adjusted in some cases.

📊 Roadmaps by Major Countries (2026 Update)

Region	Target Year	Key Points
Europe (EU)	2035	Ban on sales of new internal combustion engine vehicles (however, vehicles using synthetic fuels (e-Fuel) are under review for potential allowance).
United States	2032	Target to have 67% of new vehicles be electric (subject to change based on administration policy).
China	2035	50% of new vehicles to be electric or hydrogen-powered, with the remaining 50% being hybrids.
United Kingdom	2035	Originally targeted for 2030, but postponed by five years to 2035 to allow for industry adaptation.

3. Comparative Analysis: South Korea vs. International Market Plans

A comparative analysis of South Korea’s hydrogen vehicle deployment roadmap and international market plans reveals two major trends: “setting world-class targets” and “a practical transition centered on commercial vehicles.”

📊 Deployment Targets and Strategies Comparison (2026)

Category	South Korea (K-Roadmap)	International Market (Global Trends)
Key Targets	300,000 units by 2030	5.26 million units by 2030 / Over 10 million units by 2030 (IEA/Hydrogen Council).
Key Drivers	Government-led strong subsidies and infrastructure development.	Private investment and regulation-centered approaches such as carbon border taxes.
Vehicle Types	Passenger cars (Nexo) + Buses.	Hard-to-abate sectors such as heavy-duty trucks, shipping, and aviation.

• Supply Method: Shift from by-product hydrogen to liquefied/green hydrogen. Proactive development of green hydrogen (electrolysis) infrastructure.

4. Key Characteristics and Strategic Approaches

🏢 Roadmaps by Major Automakers

• Hyundai Motor Group: Electrify all Genesis models by 2030; cease sales of internal combustion engine vehicles in major markets by 2040.
• Mercedes-Benz / BMW: Maintaining the goal of transitioning to 100% electric vehicles while strengthening a strategy of flexibility—producing hybrid models with maximized internal combustion engine efficiency depending on market conditions.
• Volvo: Most actively pursuing the goal of transitioning all vehicle models to electric by 2030.

🇰🇷 Characteristics of Korea’s Roadmap: “Top-Down Approach”

Korea remains one of the countries with the highest adoption rates of hydrogen passenger vehicles worldwide.

• Dominance of Passenger Vehicles: Led by Hyundai’s ‘Nexo,’ the initial market focused on passenger vehicles (approx. 30–40% of the world’s hydrogen passenger vehicles operate in Korea).
• Commercial Vehicle Transition: Starting in 2026, commercial vehicles in the public sector—such as city buses, intercity buses, and sanitation trucks—will be mandated to switch to hydrogen vehicles or receive strong incentives.
• Infrastructure Density: The plan is to raise the density of refueling stations relative to land area to the world’s highest level, completing a “hydrogen highway.”

🌐 Characteristics of the International Roadmap: “Practical Commercialization”

Global markets (Europe, the U.S., China, etc.) are focusing on “areas where BEVs (battery electric vehicles) struggle to compete” rather than passenger cars.

• Long-Distance Transport (Heavy-Duty): Europe and the U.S. are focusing their hydrogen roadmaps on large trucks weighing 15 tons or more, which have long driving ranges and heavy payloads.
• China’s Rapid Growth: With strong government support, China has begun to surpass South Korea in hydrogen bus and truck deployment, setting an aggressive target of 1 million units by 2030.
• Passenger Car Dual-Track: While Europe considers electric vehicles sufficient for passenger cars, Japan and South Korea are adopting a strategy of maintaining hydrogen passenger cars for energy security.

5. Comprehensive Analysis and Market Implications

• Technology & Infrastructure Gap: While South Korea maintains world-class leadership in hydrogen fuel cell stack technology, the international market continues to invest heavily in water electrolysis (production) and liquefied hydrogen transportation.
• Shift in Infrastructure Paradigm: Both markets are moving away from gaseous hydrogen refueling. Roadmaps are being revised to prioritize liquefied hydrogen refueling stations—which refuel larger volumes more quickly—and megawatt (MW)-class high-capacity charging infrastructure.
• Timeline for Economic Viability: While Korea remains highly dependent on subsidies, the international market aims to establish a self-sustaining market by around 2030, when the unit cost of hydrogen production is expected to fall below $2/kg.

💡 Key Summary Takeaways

1. The current roadmap is evolving from the initial plan of simply “switching everything to electric vehicles” to one of “realistic coexistence and phased phase-out.”
2. Overcoming BEV Limitations: To address the lack of charging infrastructure, efforts are accelerating to develop ultra-fast charging technology and solid-state batteries.
3. The Rise of Hydrogen Mobility: A dual-track strategy is becoming increasingly clear: electric vehicles for passenger cars and hydrogen vehicles for large commercial vehicles (trucks, buses).
4. Carbon-Neutral Fuels (e-Fuels): Synthetic fuel technology, which reduces carbon emissions while allowing existing engines to continue operating, is emerging as an alternative roadmap to extend the lifespan of internal combustion engines, particularly in Europe.

The acceleration of global warming is demanding a faster shift in the vehicle operation paradigm. The roadmaps of governments and manufacturers around the world will continue to be revised and refined to keep pace with the speed of this climate crisis.