As US President Trump’s “hold on attacks” card fails to fully resolve market uncertainty, concerns over a “Physical Supply Shortage” due to the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are reaching an all-time high. Warnings that gasoline prices in the US will surpass $5 per gallon now signal a “Stagflation Shock” for the global economy, moving far beyond a simple rise in oil prices.

This analysis provides an in-depth look at the core countermeasures and stock market impacts for South Korea and Japan—two nations whose dependence on crude oil imports exceeds 90%.

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Prolonged Blockade of Hormuz and the $5 per Gallon Warning: Countermeasures for the Korea-Japan Crude Oil Supply Chain Crisis

1. A Crisis of ‘Volume,’ Not Just ‘Oil Price’: The Prolonged Hormuz Blockade Scenario

The Largest Supply Disruption Risk in History

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), a crude oil supply of over 14 million barrels per day is currently blocked due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the Trump administration’s temporary suspension of attacks and proposals for negotiations, maritime insurance risks and the authoritarian bloc’s tendency to weaponize supply chains show no signs of easing. As a result, the unprecedented crisis of a “failure to secure physical crude oil” is becoming a reality.

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2. Three Core Countermeasures for South Korea and Japan (Energy Security Strategy)

① Release of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) and Activation of the Korea-Japan ‘Energy Swap’

• Joint Response via Reserves: South Korea and Japan must defend against a short-term supply cliff by urgently releasing strategic petroleum reserves, either mutually or through cooperation with the IEA.
• Logistical Solidarity: Geographically close, both nations are highly likely to optimize crude oil tanker routes and materialize a “Korea-Japan Energy Swap System” to mutually accommodate crude oil and petroleum products if specific refining distribution networks face disruptions.

② Breaking Dependence on the Middle East: Bypassing Shipping Routes & Diversifying Import Sources

• Utilizing Bypass Pipelines: The two nations will launch an all-out effort to secure bypass volumes through Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast terminals or the UAE’s Port of Fujairah, completely avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.
• Diversifying Imports to the Americas and Africa: A structural shift will occur to forcefully lower exposure to Middle East risks by aggressively increasing the import share of US shale oil (WTI) as well as crude oil from West Africa and Latin America.

③ Accelerating Eco-Friendly Energy and Hydrogen Transition for ‘Energy Security’

• Accelerating the Departure from Fossil Fuels: Skyrocketing gasoline and diesel prices will intensify the pressure to transition toward Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs).
• The Korea-Japan Hydrogen Alliance: In particular, the deployment of the “Global Hydrogen Supply Chain (Production and Transportation Roadmap)”—a critical initiative for both governments—will be fast-forwarded by several years. Infrastructure investments to import blue/green hydrogen and ammonia from geopolitically safe zones like Australia or North America will gain rapid momentum.

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3. Ripple Effects of the Supply Chain Crisis on the Domestic Stock Market

While a decline in crude oil supply availability drives up costs across all industries, it creates powerful momentum for specific sectors that receive policy benefits.

🔴 Downward Pressure Sectors (Risk Factors)

• Refining & Chemical Stocks (Increased Short-Term Volatility): Rising oil prices can occasionally lead to higher margins. However, if the “influx of crude oil itself is restricted” and shortages of petrochemical feedstocks like ethylene worsen, these sectors will take a direct hit in earnings due to lowered utilization rates.
• Aviation & Traditional Logistics Stocks: These sectors will face downward pressure due to skyrocketing jet fuel and diesel prices, combined with a decline in cargo volume caused by a contracting global macroeconomy.

🟢 Upward Momentum Sectors (Beneficiary Factors)

• Shipping & Shipbuilding Stocks (HMM, Large-Cap Shipbuilders): As maritime routes lengthen to secure bypass channels around the Strait of Hormuz, ocean freight rates (such as the SCFI) will skyrocket. Furthermore, demand for new gas and crude oil carriers will surge to diversify the oil/LNG supply chain, maximizing the high-value vessel order momentum for major domestic shipbuilders.
• Hydrogen Infrastructure & Green Energy Themes: As a fundamental solution to Middle East oil risks, government subsidies and massive capital inflows will target companies within the hydrogen value chain (fuel cells, hydrogen refueling stations, hydrogen tanks) and eco-friendly power infrastructure firms like nuclear and solar energy.

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4. Conclusion and Comprehensive Outlook

The current situation—where tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved despite President Trump’s negotiation proposals—is a harbinger of “Oil Shock 2.0.” While the substantial damage to the crude oil supply chain will exert inflationary pressure and worsen the trade balance for the Korean and Japanese economies, it will paradoxically trigger a major turning point: driving import source diversification, sparking a shipping and shipbuilding boom due to rising freight rates, and accelerating the grand transition toward a green hydrogen economy.